Update: Republican Matt Van Epps has defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District race, the Associated Press projects. Read more here.
Washington — Voters are heading to the polls Tuesday in central Tennessee for 2025’s final election showdown in a race that could be a referendum on President Trump.
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran, and Democrat Aftyn Behn, a Tennessee state representative, are vying for the seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to replace former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July. Green had represented the district, which stretches from parts of Nashville to the state’s borders with Kentucky and Alabama and includes many rural counties, since 2019. He won his most recent race by more than 20 points.
Though the election would normally be considered a safe win for Republicans, polling has shown a closer-than-expected race in The Volunteer State, including some that outline a single-digit race. Meanwhile, millions of dollars in outside spending have poured in, while top figures in both parties have stumped for the candidates in recent days.
Still, a Democratic victory in the deep-red Tennessee district would be an uphill climb. But onlookers will be watching to see whether the race comes within a single-digit margin as a possible harbinger of what’s to come in next year’s elections.
An indicator for the midterms
The outcome of Tuesday’s special election will all but certainly be viewed as an indicator for what’s to come in next year’s midterm elections, as Democrats tout a string of recent victories.
Traditional political wisdom dictates that the party that controls the White House often loses ground in midterm elections. And the Tennessee special election follows overperformance by Democrats in special elections in September, along with a sweep across key races in November’s elections that the party has pointed to as evidence of a changing tide among the electorate after bruising 2024 elections for the party.
In last month’s races, Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill handily won their gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, while in New York City, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani prevailed in his race for mayor.
With the dynamics in Tennessee, even a narrow loss in Tuesday’s special election would be viewed as bolstering Democrats’ momentum heading into the midterms.
A special election with national attention
Tuesday’s special election has drawn national interest, with millions of dollars in outside spending, along with visits and phone rallies held by high-ranking members of both parties, who have poured into the district in recent days to support the candidates.
House Speaker Mike Johnson stumped for Van Epps in the district Monday, framing the race as a contrast between the GOP “delivering on our promises,” and Democrats imposing their “radical” agenda.
At one point, Johnson phoned a “friend,” who turned out to be the president. “We have to win this seat,” Mr. Trump told the crowd.
“Let’s make it a sweeping victory. The whole world is watching Tennessee right now and they’re watching your district,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a big vote, it’s got to show something, and it’s got to show that the Republican party is stronger than it’s ever been.”
Former Vice President Al Gore, who represented Tennessee in Congress, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were among Democrats who spoke at a phone rally for Behn on Monday. Gore said during November’s elections, “bipartisan and independent voters served notice, with massive landslides, that they’re sick and tired of Trump’s madness and cruelty.”
“So it’s no wonder that the president’s begun to panic about tomorrow’s election here in Tennessee,” Gore said. “The stage is set, and I do believe that Tennesseans are determined to claw back decency, self respect and common sense from the most corrupt and dangerous president in American history.”
