The government shutdown that began Wednesday prompted the White House to cancel a celebration in honor of Hispanic Heritage Month with Latino supporters, a key voting group for President Trump in 2024. Despite periodic events showcasing GOP efforts to woo Hispanics, that support may be eroding.
Latinos made up a big part of the coalition that helped propel Mr. Trump to victory — he won with nearly half of Latino voters — a historic high of 48% for a Republican presidential contender. A majority of Hispanic male voters backed him in the race against former Vice President Kamala Harris.
But recent polling suggests Hispanic support for the president and his policies has dropped, primarily over economic issues, including the high prices of groceries and housing.
In a New York Times/Sienna poll this week, 69% of Hispanics said they disapprove of the way Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, and 58% said they believe he has made the economy worse since he took office.
Polling commissioned by the Democratic National Committee over the summer found similar sentiments among Hispanics, indicating Mr. Trump’s approval rating is heavily net negative, and by June had become slightly more so, compared to April, after his first 100 days in office. The commissioned polling, taken in November, April and June, was used to brief national Democratic officials during the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in Minnesota in August.
More Latinos said immigration reform was important to them in June, compared to November 2024, around the presidential election. Then, they ranked it as their sixth-most important issue, but in June, immigration reform was their second-most important, trailing only their concern about the cost of living and inflation. Since President Trump took office, his administration has cracked down on immigrants it says are here illegally, and recently, the Department of Homeland Security said it was on pace to deport 600,000 undocumented immigrants by the end of the year.
By June, the vast majority of the respondents said they were closely following the Trump administration’s immigration actions, and almost half reported that they feared being deported, and they feared family members or friends could also be deported.
Latino voters have been consistent about their top issue, the economy, Democratic officials learned. It was their top issue in November and that was still the case in June. At that time, they viewed the economy as bad and worried it was getting worse. Just under a fifth of Latino Trump voters said it was possible or likely that he and Republicans would lose their support.
“Latinos trusted him, believed him when they gave him their votes in 2024 when he promised that he was going to bring down the cost of groceries, gas and rent,” said Democratic strategist Maria Cardona.
But the Democratic-commissioned polling also found that Latinos’ fears about Mr. Trump’s economy did not seem to be translating into support for Democrats — by April, they still had not made major gains among these voters.
“Democrats need to talk about what they will do for Latinos, not just how horrendous Donald Trump and Republicans have been,” Cardona said. “Democrats need to lead with ‘this is what we will do for you, here is how we will help you and your family live a better life,’ which is again the reason why we all came to this country to begin with.”
Democrats and Republicans will have an opportunity to test their support in November’s off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia. In 2026, Republicans are counting on a high Latino voter turnout as they fight to hold on to the House majority next year.
“The Hispanic sentiment on the ground is we haven’t seen the lower cost of energy, or food prices fast enough,” said Jorge Martinez, strategic director of Libre, a national grassroots organization that mobilizes Latino voters.
Martinez says it’s too soon, however, to see the impact of economic policies under the One Big Beautiful Act that Republicans are rebranding as the “Working Families Tax Cut” law ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
“If Republicans can stay focused on creating progress, growth policies that bring more energy and lower cost of goods and services, I can see things getting better for Republicans, but they have to deliver on those results,” said Martinez.
