New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli may have a chance in the race against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill to win back the governor’s office from Democrats after a surprisingly close election four years ago.
But a national political environment that may serve as a referendum on Republican President Trump’s first year in office could close that window for the GOP.
Mr. Trump has supported Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, and backed him as he faced a competitive primary, even going as far as to hold a telephone rally for him recently. Ciattarelli is running for governor for a third time, after falling short in a surprisingly close race against Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.
Sherrill says Ciattarelli has shown “zero signs of standing up” to Trump
On the Democratic side, Sherrill, who represents New Jersey’s 11th District in Congress, has a favorable national political environment, but is contending with potential political fatigue within the state about her party’s back-to-back terms controlling the governor’s office. Sherrill has been adamant about tying Ciattarelli to President Trump and focusing her campaign on affordability.
“He’s shown zero signs of standing up to this president. In fact, the president himself called Jack 100% MAGA,” Sherrill said during a debate.
Ciattarelli faults Democrats for being “out of touch and ruining our state”
Ciattarelli has faulted Sherrill for relying on generalities and platitudes while also centering his argument for change on New Jersey Democrats’ lengthy tenure in control of state government.
“Trenton Democrats: out of touch and ruining our state. They push offshore wind while our electric bills skyrocket. They raise tolls and fees but haven’t fixed our roads and they care more about pronouns than property taxes,” Ciattarelli said in one campaign advertisement. “Had enough? Me too.”
Sherrill was not the most progressive candidate in this year’s New Jersey primary race, and she may also have to contend with the Democratic brand issues that have haunted national Democrats in the wake of 2024, due to her career in Congress.
Democrats’ winning streak in the state could also give Republicans an anti-incumbency argument, and it wasn’t long ago that a Republican led the state. From the 1970s onwards, neither party has been able to win the New Jersey governor’s race three straight times.
The final stretch
Sherrill is getting campaign support before Election Day from former President Barack Obama, in another signal of the importance the contest has for a party still facing a vacuum of leadership at the national level. And Mr. Trump held a tele-rally for Ciattarelli before Election Day, as Republicans look to return a GOP candidate to the governor’s office for the first time since Chris Christie led the state.
Back in 2021, Ciattarelli narrowly lost the New Jersey governor’s race to incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. The race, occurring early in Democratic President Joe Biden’s tenure, was far closer than was expected, given the state’s more reliable Democratic lean, with Murphy winning out over Ciattarelli by around three points.
In a close race, New Jersey’s Latino voters may also play an influential role for either candidate. Democrats have a voter registration advantage over Republicans in the state, although their numbers have dipped as of late. Statistics show that since the start of the year the number of registered Democrats in New Jersey has fallen by more than 12,000 but remains above 2.5 million in the state. Republican voter registration has grown by close to 29,000 but still trails Democrats by more than 855,000, with around 1.67 million registered to the GOP. Unaffiliated voters still make up a larger share of the state’s voters than the GOP and only narrowly trail the Democratic party’s numbers.
