If the hope among Democrats for a decisive blue wave in the 2026 midterms has a chance of coming to pass, the party would likely have to win difficult House contests in redder parts of the country.
Montana’s 1st Congressional District may prove to be the test case for whether that can happen.
Smokejumper Sam Forstag is set to announce on Monday a run for the seat, giving the left a new candidate in the race after two Democratic candidates already filed federal paperwork in the contest.
The wildland firefighter and local federal employee union leader, who also had a stint in legislative lobbying for the Montana chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, gained attention in 2025 when he spoke at a rally in Missoula held by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. While Montana is a reliably Republican state in national elections, only a few years ago, Montana had a Democratic governor and, until last year, a Democratic U.S. senator. Yet the last Democrat to represent Montana in the U.S. House left office almost 30 years ago.
“The way you win an election in this state, and I actually think the way you actually have some path to victory for the national party, is A: you win back working people, right?” Forstag said in an interview. “We’ve got to win back union members like me, who have felt like both parties have abandoned them. And we need to win back young people who feel like in a place like Western Montana, you’ve got a generation, or two generations of people that can’t even conceive of ever owning a home in this state.”
Democrats may only end up needing to win a handful of seats to flip control of the House away from Republicans this coming fall, and more traditional opportunities exist in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Iowa to help them do that.
But races like Montana’s 1st District could prove pivotal in whether the party can overcome more urgent challenges that have emerged, namely the high unfavorability mark Democrats carried late last year and the view shown in polling around the country that the party is weak.
The seat is held by Republican Ryan Zinke, who has had two tenures in Congress and was secretary of the interior for part of President Trump’s first term before leaving the post amid federal watchdog investigations. He now has a notable role in Washington as part of the main House committee dealing with federal funding, giving the Montana Republican tangible influence.
Zinke’s campaign website says that “Ryan’s decisions are based on upholding the Constitution and doing what is right for Montana and America. He believes and lives the truth of American Exceptionalism and recognizes the unique role that we play in global prosperity and security. Ryan knows that the problem is not that there’s too much Montana in D.C.; the problem is that there’s too much D.C. in Montana.”
In recent cycles, control of the House has been decided by a narrow number of seats after a wave of wins helped Democrats during the midpoint of Mr. Trump’s first term as president. Back in 2018, Democrats took back control of the House by netting around 40 seats. Since that recent high point, the majorities for both parties have been far more narrow in the House.
Zinke faced close races during his second House tenure however, winning his seat in the 2022 midterms by around three points before defeating the same opponent during the 2024 presidential election by more than seven points. Late last year, he touted Mr. Trump’s endorsement for another term in Congress.
House midterm cycles have tended to be difficult for the party of the incumbent president during the modern political era. But this fall’s election comes as Democrats contend with messaging struggles and clear concerns about the party’s brand after its losses during the 2024 presidential election. The leader of the Democratic National Committee also announced late last year that he would not release a full report of the last national election in a move that prompted criticism from some party faithful who questioned the decision.
National Republicans for months have been looking to take advantage of the left’s lackluster standing with voters while also attempting to tie Democrats in competitive races with more liberal figures on the left around the country. And in Montana’s first congressional district, a Democratic candidate would likely need to win a fair amount of voters who have sided with President Trump in the past to be able to realistically flip the seat.
That’s a dynamic Forstag told CBS News he’s prepared to embrace as he also contends with the difficulties of running as a Democrat in a red state at a time when the national party brand carries its own issues.
“If the Democratic Party can’t win working-class people, it’s not going to be the sort of party that I would want to be a part of for much longer,” Forstag said. “So on a fundamental level, I think the Democratic Party, for all the conversations that we’ve had about representation over the last 10 or 15 years, seems to have forgotten about what I see as the most fundamentally important kind of representation, which is economic representation.”
