Who’s who in Cuba’s leadership? Here are the names to know.

In the months after U.S. forces removed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power in a daring but relatively brief military operation, President Trump has openly intimated that something similar could soon take place in Cuba. 

He has said “Cuba’s going to be next” and mused about “taking Cuba in some form.”

For decades, U.S. administrations have tried and failed to bring about major changes to Cuba’s communist system, imposing sanctions but making little headway as its economy fell into ruins. 

As living conditions in Cuba further worsen under a virtual oil blockade imposed by the Trump administration following Maduro’s ouster, U.S. officials have been meeting with key Cuban figures to press for economic and political reform.

Mr. Trump has signaled he’s looking for something big for Cuba, possibly a change at the top, similar to the Maduro operation. He recently said he’s seeking to “bring about a day 70 years in waiting — it’s called a new dawn for Cuba.” 

What that would mean for Cuba’s leaders remains to be seen. Here are some of the figures to watch.

Raúl Castro

Raúl Castro, the younger brother of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, stepped down as Cuba’s president in 2018 and as the leader of its Communist Party in 2021, but he’s still widely seen as one of the most powerful figures in the country. 

CBS News has reported that the U.S. is taking steps to indict the 94-year-old Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 downing of two planes operated by the Cuban exile group Brothers to the Rescue. 

Raúl Castro served as a commander in the guerrilla war, led by his brother, that toppled U.S.-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959. He was later the head of Cuba’s armed forces, while Fidel Castro led Cuba for nearly 50 years. In 2008, Fidel handed the presidency over to Raúl, who in 2011 also succeeded his brother as the leader of Cuba’s Communist Party. Fidel Castro died in 2016.

Raúl Castro is viewed as more pragmatic than his brother, reaching an accord with then-President Barack Obama in 2014 that created the most extensive U.S. opening to Cuba since the early 1960s — creating a surge in contacts with the U.S., though this was largely reversed during the first Trump administration.

Miguel Díaz-Canel

Miguel Díaz-Canel has served as president of Cuba since 2018 and is also leader of its Communist Party. His term runs until 2028. 

He’s the first person who is not a Castro to lead the country since the Cuban Revolution in 1959 and was hand-picked by his predecessor, Raúl Castro, for the job. 

Reports indicate that the Trump administration does not believe the changes it seeks can come about under its current president.

Díaz-Canel has said the purpose of talks between Cuba and the U.S. is to identify differences, possible resolutions and ways Cuba and the U.S. can move forward. In response to Mr. Trump’s threats of a military takeover, Díaz-Canel has said Cuba would defeat it.

But Díaz-Canel is largely viewed by experts as a functionary, a loyalist without much true authority. 

“He’s not one of the central power brokers in Cuba. He is the president, but he’s not the real power on the island,” said Christopher Hernandez-Roy, senior fellow and deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If he were to step down or if he would be removed, that’s a fairly easy concession for the true power brokers in Cuba to make,”

Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, the Castros’ great-nephew 

Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga doesn’t have the Castro name, but he’s a great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro and is already in government. 

Pérez-Oliva Fraga, who is 55 and an electrical engineer by training, was appointed deputy prime minister last October and also serves as Cuba’s minister of foreign trade and investment. 

Reports in recent months indicate he has also been appointed to the National Assembly, which makes it legal for him to ascend to the presidency. 

As part of his trade and investment responsibilities, Pérez-Oliva Fraga was behind the announcement in March that Cubans in the diaspora or in exile may now invest and own businesses in Cuba, which have been primarily state enterprises over the last several decades. 

This idea represents a significant reversal: Cubans who emigrated from the island were disparaged under Fidel Castro’s regime as “gusanos” — worms. So “that’s a fairly significant opening” and shows a willingness to move the economy in a “slightly different direction,” Hernandez-Roy said. 

But he also said the move could run afoul of the Helms-Burton Act, which says the U.S. embargo against Cuba can only be lifted once there’s transition government in place that doesn’t include Fidel or Raúl Castro and once the new government moves toward a free-market economic system and free elections.

Pérez-Oliva Fraga’s position as trade minister also gives him some oversight of GAESA, Cuba’s military-controlled conglomerate of tourism, finance and import businesses. 

The U.S. State Department, which announced new sanctions against GAESA on May 7, believes GAESA controls 40% or more of Cuba’s economy and says it generates income “for the benefit of [Cuba’s] corrupt elites.” The department estimates GAESA’s revenues “are likely more than three times the state’s budget,” and it may control “up to $20 billion in illicit assets.” 

“Raulito,” grandson of Raúl Castro

Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito,” is Raúl Castro’s 41-year-old grandson. Also nicknamed “El Cangrejo” (“The Crab”) because he was born with a sixth finger on one hand, he serves as Raúl Castro’s bodyguard and adviser. 

He does not have a formal role in the government. But Hernandez-Roy says Rodríguez Castro is a key figure as “the gatekeeper to his grandfather, who even though he’s 94, remains absolutely central to decisionmaking in Cuba.”

He has been identified as the main point of contact with the U.S., meeting with Trump administration officials over the last several months, including talks in mid-April.

Axios has reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is among the officials who have met with the younger Castro, who could be part of a potential deal with the U.S. 

Is there a “Delcy” in Cuba?

The Trump administration’s operation in Venezuela could offer a template for Cuba. Soon after toppling Maduro, who was whisked away by U.S. military forces in a few hours, the U.S. recognized his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, as interim president — someone the Trump administration believed it could work with. 

Hernandez-Roy suggests one “possible Delcy” figure for Cuba may be Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga. 

However, Ryan Berg, the former director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Americas Program, pointed out on CSIS’ “State of Play” podcast in March that one reason it would be difficult for the U.S. to replicate the Venezuela playbook in Cuba is that “for now, it doesn’t seem as if there is an analogue to the Venezuela situation — meaning there is a kind of Delcy Rodriguez that we can identify in Cuba to work with as a kind of interim leader.” 

Still, the U.S. may be looking for options, and the most likely possibilities could be members of the Castro family, although it’s not clear what role they’d play in a new or updated government. 

“Rubio keeps saying that the people in charge have to change,” American University professor William LeoGrande, a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy, told CBS News. But he expected resistance.

“The Cubans are willing to discuss a wide range of economic issues, but they’ve already drawn a red line on letting the United States dictate either the shape of their political system or who their political leaders are,” LeoGrande said. “To them, that’s a matter of their national sovereignty. And so I think at this point, that’s probably going to be a real sticking point in reaching some kind of an agreement.”